"The hunt for the next pandemic is on our shores"
Dr Michelle Wille features in ABC’s Long Read on the avian flu virus H5N1.
The ABC reports the avian flu virus H5N1 2.3.4.4b is already considered a panzootic, the animal equivalent of a pandemic. In 2021 scientists saw the ecology of the avian flu virus change. The virus rapidly expanded in wild birds and farmed poultry and is now rampant in Europe, Asia, South America and the US.
So far Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific remain the only regions in the world not infected with H5N1.
Sea mammals such as seals and sea lions eating sick or dead wild birds became infected and foxes and raccoon dogs have caught the virus. In March last year H5N1 was found in dairy cattle, most likely transmitted by contact with an infected bird’s mucus or faeces, and then spread from cow-to-cow via infected milking equipment.
And last week in the UK H5N1 was found in a sheep also infecting its milk. Unpasteurised milk carries with virus.
“The milk has just got so much virus in it. It’s got more virus in it than we can make in the lab. It’s actually quite unbelievable,” Dr Michelle Wille told ABC Long Reads. Michelle is an expert in the ecology and evolution of avian flu viruses in the Dept of Microbiology & Immunology at the Doherty Institute’s Centre for Pathogen Genomics.
Michelle informed the ABC what is known so far about H5N1′s effects on native species around the world.
“This virus has been really catastrophic to wildlife everywhere it’s showed up,” she says, listing the known impacts on a range of species:
- 500,000 wild birds dead in South America;
- 40 per cent of Peruvian pelicans dead in a matter of months;
- Populations of great skuas that breed in Scotland down by 60 per cent;
- 16 per cent of Europe’s Sandwich Terns have died in one year;
- 30,000 South American sea lions have died equal to around 10 per cent of the population;
- 18,000 southern elephant seals have died
The mass death and even extinction of any animal species is devastating and Michelle says the risk to Australian species is real and “it’s something that deserves our attention”.
“If this virus arrives in Australia it’s probably going to have the same impact here as it has had everywhere else,” she told the ABC. “This is not something to be trifled with.”
If you see a sick or dead bird in Australia, report it to the emergency disease watch hotline 1800 675 888.
This article was originally published by ABC Long Reads on 30 March 2025.
About Dr Michelle Wille
For the past 15+ years Michelle has been working with influenza A in wild bird systems in Canada, Sweden and Australia amongst other.